Strengthening democratic resilience through behavioral science

Article examines which factors can endanger the democratic balance and highlights protective measures
 

Democracies worldwide are under pressure and increasingly at risk of sliding into autocracy. But democratic structures often prove resilient: protective mechanisms and the engagement of civil society prevent them from ultimately failing. Such ‘near-misses’ are cautionary examples of socio-political developments. Researchers from the University of Potsdam, the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and the University of Bristol have used historical examples to examine how such crises arise and how they could be averted. Their findings show that behavioral research can help strengthen democracies. This includes interventions that enable individuals to recognize systematic and manipulative disinformation and protect themselves, or that help to counter polarization and voter apathy. The results have been published in the journal Behavioural Public Policy.

In 2004, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe Vélez successfully worked toward a constitutional amendment that enabled him to run for a second term in office. As it later turned out, he achieved this through bribery, intimidation of journalists, and spying on the Supreme Court. However, his attempt to amend the constitution once more in 2010 to make a third term in office possible was stopped by the Constitutional Court. Modern democracies do not usually collapse suddenly or with a loud bang, but often go through a gradual erosion of norms, conventions, and institutions. In many cases, political elites in the executive consolidate more and more power and gradually undermine democratic processes and institutions. In some cases, however, it is possible to quickly reverse an autocratic phase or to avert a complete shift towards autocracy at the last moment. Christoph Abels and his team of researchers took a closer look at these so-called “near-misses” using specific historical examples in Colombia (2010), Sri Lanka (2015), and South Korea (2017). In their research, they draw on concepts from behavioral science, which has long been concerned with accidents and near-accidents in sociotechnical systems. “We are adopting the drift-to-danger model from accident research in order to better describe and explain democratic instability,” the researcher explains. They found that gradual violations of norms in liberal democracies follow a dynamic development with a certain tipping point that makes it almost impossible to return to democratic structures with the usual control mechanisms, e.g. through elections or civil society involvement. After that point, a complete transition to an authoritarian regime could take place very quickly. Adolf Hitler's establishment of a one-party dictatorship and a police state within a few months of his appointment as Reich Chancellor is a cautionary example from recent history. “By analyzing cases in which a collapse of democratic structures and processes was successfully thwarted or reversed, we have identified both risk-increasing factors and protective measures that contribute to strengthening democratic systems,” says Christoph M. Abels, lead author of the study.

Violations of norms by political elites

In all the examples they studied, political elites had violated democratic norms and were ultimately stopped by a reaction from the public. The norm violations were facilitated by a combination of populism, misinformation, and polarization. These factors weakened the protection and control mechanisms that normally prevent political elites from undermining core democratic norms. However, the analysis showed that the role of the public in tolerating or rejecting these violations varies. “Clear public support for the preservation of democratic norms – even when it goes against one's own political interests – is an important protective factor for the robustness of liberal democracies. Unfortunately, polarization and populism are increasingly undermining society's willingness to do so,” Abels adds.

Non-linearity and difficult predictability of developments

The researchers' second important finding is the non-linearity of the developments that cause the decline in democracy: “Some violations can be absorbed, but an exact tipping point is difficult to predict. The precise breaking point at which a downward spiral can become irreversible could be just one more norm violation or another protective mechanism override away at any time,” says co-author Prof. Dr. Ralph Hertwig from the MPIB. “This shows how important it is to protect democratic norms and to name and condemn blatant violations, as the consequences of silence are unpredictable.”

That is why the researchers have also taken this historical analysis as an opportunity to apply their findings to current developments in the UK and the US – and to derive new approaches on how the behavioral sciences can strengthen democracy. The US system of checks and balances, which has served as a model for many other democracies, appears to be eroding in several areas, the researchers found. Society is highly polarized at all levels, from the political leadership to the citizens. Norms have been breached more frequently, which recently culminated in Donald Trump questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential elections.

Counteract with behavioural interventions

“Behavioral interventions are another tool in the toolbox of those who want to work together to stop and reverse the decline of democracies around the world. Most of these interventions are aimed at the public and intended to raise awareness of the risks of democratic decline and increase resilience in the face of manipulation and false information,” Prof. Stephan Lewandowsky, Ph.D., visiting professor at the University of Potsdam, summarizes the research tasks yet to come. This includes helping people to better recognize misinformation and reducing social polarization by correcting misconceptions about the political opposition.

In brief:

• Democratic systems are threatened by the creeping erosion of norms and institutions, usually triggered by political elites consolidating power and undermining democratic processes.

• ‘Near-misses’ show that democratic setbacks can be averted if the public actively opposes norm violations, even against its own interests.

• Democratic backsliding is unpredictable and non-linear; tipping points at which an authoritarian regime becomes irreversible are difficult to predict.

• Behavioural interventions can help combat norm violations and protect democratic systems

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