© Stefan Herzog

Herzog, Stefan

Senior Research Scientist
Adaptive Rationality
+49 30 82406-406
    • Publications

    Main Focus

    Head of Research Area Boosting Decision Making

    I study how to boost human judgment and decision making (scienceofboosting.org) by understanding human and machine behavior and how humans themselves understand machines. I combine insights and methods from cognitive science, collective intelligence ("wisdom of crowds"), heuristics, and algorithms. I also work on applications in digital environments (sks.to/rao), medical decision making, and meteorology. Furthermore, I am co-leading an initiative on reconfiguring behavioral science for crisis knowledge management in response to COVID-19 and other, future disruptive events (scibeh.org).

    I am the head of the research area “boosting decision making” (scienceofboosting.org) and senior researcher at the Center for Adaptive Rationality at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. In 2010 I received the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. My research has been covered in the popular press (e.g., Scientific American) and appears in academic and popular science books (incl. Tetlock and Garner’s “Superforecasting”). I studied psychology, management, and computer science, and received my psychology doctorate in 2009 from the University of Basel.

    Curriculum Vitae

    Full CV: PDF

    • 2021 – Senior Research Scientist and Head of Research "Area Boosting Decision Making" | Center for Adaptive Rationality (ARC), Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin
    • 2012 – 2021 Researcher | Center for Adaptive Rationality (ARC), Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin; since 2019 Head of Research Area "Boosting Decision Making"
    • 2009 – 2012 Researcher | Cognitive and Decision Sciences, Department of Psychology, University of Basel
    • 2009 Dr. phil. (summa cum laude/with highest praise) | University of Basel, Switzerland
    • 2005 M. Sc. Psychology (summa cum laude/with highest praise) | University of Basel, Switzerland
    • 2003 B. Sc. Psychology (magna cum laude/with great praise) | University of Basel, Switzerland

    Five selected, recent publications

    * shared authorships / equal contribution  |  $ senior authorship

    1. Hertwig*, R., Herzog*, S. M., Kozyreva, A. (2023). Blinding to circumvent human biases: Deliberate ignorance in humans, institutions, and machines. Perspectives in Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/17456916231188052
    2. Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Nuzzolese, A. G., Russo, A., Barabucci, G., Herzog, S. M., & Trianni, V. (2023). Automating hybrid collective intelligence in open-ended medical diagnostics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(34), e2221473120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2221473120
    3. Kozyreva, A., Herzog, S. M., Lewandowsky, S., Hertwig, R., Lorenz-Spreen, P., Leiser, M., & Reifler, J. (2023). Resolving content moderation dilemmas between free speech and harmful misinformation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(7), e2210666120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210666120
    4. Litvinova*, A., Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Hertwig, R., & Herzog*$, S. M. (2022). How experts' own inconsistency relates to their confidence and between-expert disagreement. Scientific Reports, 12, 9273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12847-5
    5. Lorenz-Spreen*, P., Geers, M., Pachur, T., Hertwig, R., Lewandowsky, S., & Herzog*$, S. M. (2021). Boosting people’s ability to detect microtargeted advertising. Scientific Reports, 11, 15541. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94796-z

    Ten selected peer-reviewed publications

    * shared authorships / equal contribution  |  $ senior authorship

    1. Hertwig*, R., Herzog*, S. M., Kozyreva, A. (2023). Blinding to circumvent human biases: Deliberate ignorance in humans, institutions, and machines. Perspectives in Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/17456916231188052
    2. Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Nuzzolese, A. G., Russo, A., Barabucci, G., Herzog, S. M., & Trianni, V. (2023). Automating hybrid collective intelligence in open-ended medical diagnostics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(34), e2221473120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2221473120
    3. Kozyreva, A., Herzog, S. M., Lewandowsky, S., Hertwig, R., Lorenz-Spreen, P., Leiser, M., & Reifler, J. (2023). Resolving content moderation dilemmas between free speech and harmful misinformation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(7), e2210666120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210666120
    4. Kozyreva*, A., Lorenz-Spreen, P., Hertwig, R., Lewandowsky, S., & Herzog*$, S. M. (2021). Public attitudes towards algorithmic personalization and use of personal data online: Evidence from Germany, Great Britain, and the US. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications, 8(117). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00787-w
    5. Lorenz-Spreen*, P., Geers, M., Pachur, T., Hertwig, R., Lewandowsky, S., & Herzog*$, S. M. (2021). Boosting people’s ability to detect microtargeted advertising. Scientific Reports, 11, 15541. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94796-z
    6. Analytis*, P. P., Barkoczi*, D., & Herzog*$, S. M. (2018). Social learning strategies for matters of taste. Nature Human Behavior, 2, 415–424. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0343-2
    7. Herzog, S. M., & von Helversen, B. (2018). Strategy selection versus strategy blending: A predictive perspective on single- and multi-strategy accounts in multiple-cue estimation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 233–249. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1958
    8. Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Herzog, S. M., Hertwig, R., Krause, J., Carney, P. A., Bogart, A., et al. (2016). Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, 8777–8782. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601827113
    9. Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2014). Harnessing the wisdom of the inner crowd. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 18, 504–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2014.06.009
    10. Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2009). The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 20, 231–237. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x
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