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Stefan Herzog

© private
Researcher
+49 30 82406-406
herzog [at] mpib-berlin [dot] mpg [dot] de
129

Short CV: 
Research Interests: 

I research how to improve human judgment and decision making. To this end I combine insights from cognitive science, bounded rationality, heuristics, collective intelligence (“wisdom of crowds”), data science, and machine learning—with a focus on how to create the “wisdom of crowds” within one mind (i.e., “inner crowd” and “dialectical bootstrapping”). In addition to basic research, I work on applications in medical decision making.


Selected Literature: 

Analytis, P. P., Barkoczi, D., & Herzog, S. M. (2018). Social learning strategies for matters of taste. Nature Human Behavior, 2, 415–424. doi:10.1038/s41562-018-0343-2

Herzog, S. M., & von Helversen, B. (2018). Strategy selection versus strategy blending: A predictive perspective on single- and multi-strategy accounts in multiple-cue estimation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 233-249. doi:10.1002/bdm.1958

Moussaïd, M., Herzog, S. M., Kämmer, J. E., & Hertwig, R. (2017). Reach and speed of judgment propagation in the laboratory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114, 4117–4122. doi:10.1073/pnas.1611998114

Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Herzog, S. M., Hertwig, R., Krause, J., Carney, P. A., Bogart, A., et al. (2016). Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, 8777–8782. doi:10.1073/pnas.1601827113

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2014a). Harnessing the wisdom of the inner crowd. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 18, 504–506. doi:10.1016/j.tics.2014.06.009

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2014b). Think twice and then: Combining or choosing in dialectical bootstrapping? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 218–232. doi:10.1037/a0034054

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2009). The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 20, 231–237. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x

open all Curriculum Vitae

zuklappen Publications

2018

Analytis, P. P., Barkoczi, D., & Herzog, S. M. (2018). Social learning strategies for matters of taste. Nature Human Behaviour, 2, 415-424. doi:10.1038/s41562-018-0343-2
Full text

Frey, R., Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2018). Deciding on behalf of others: A population survey on procedural preferences for surrogate decision making. BMJ Open, 8:e022289. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-022289
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Herzog, S. M., & von Helversen, B. (2018). Strategy selection versus strategy blending: A predictive perspective on single- and multi-strategy accounts in multiple-cue estimation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 233-249. doi:10.1002/bdm.1958
Full text

2017

Herzog, S. M., Lim, H. W., Williams, M. S., De Maddalena, I. D., Osterwalder, U., & Surber, C. (2017). Sun protection factor communication of sunscreen effectiveness: A web-based study of perception of effectiveness by dermatologists. JAMA Dermatology, 153, 348-350. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2016.4924
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Kämmer, J. E., Hautz, W. E., Herzog, S. M., Kunina-Habenicht, O., & Kurvers, R. H. J. M. (2017). The potential of collective intelligence in emergency medicine: Pooling medical students' independent decisions improves diagnostic performance. Medical Decision Making, 37, 715-724. doi:10.1177/0272989X17696998
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Moussaïd, M., Herzog, S. M., Kämmer, J. E., & Hertwig, R. (2017). Reach and speed of judgment propagation in the laboratory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114, 4117-4122. doi:10.1073/pnas.1611998114
Full text

2016

Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Herzog, S. M., Hertwig, R., Krause, J., Carney, P. A., Bogart, A., Argenziano, G., Zalaudek, I., & Wolf, M. (2016). Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, 8777-8782. doi:10.1073/pnas.1601827113
Full text

2015

Analytis, P. P., Barkoczi, D., & Herzog, S. M. (2015). You're special, but it doesn't matter if you're a greenhorn: Social recommender strategies for mere mortals. In R. Dale, C. Jennings, P. Maglio, T. Matlock, D. Noelle, A. Warlaumont, & J. Yoshimi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society: Mind, technology, and society (pp. 1799-1804). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
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2014

Frey, R., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2014). Surrogate decision making: Do we have to trade off accuracy and procedural satisfaction? Medical Decision Making, 34, 258-269. doi:10.1177/0272989X12471729
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Helversen, B. v., Herzog, S. M., & Rieskamp, J. (2014). Haunted by a Doppelgänger: Irrelevant facial similarity affects rule-based judgments. Experimental Psychology, 61, 12-22. doi:10.1027/1618-3169/a000221

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2014). Harnessing the wisdom of the inner crowd. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 18, 504-506. doi:10.1016/j.tics.2014.06.009
Full text

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2014). Think twice and then: Combining or choosing in dialectical bootstrapping? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40, 218-232. doi:10.1037/a0034054
Full text

2013

Herzog, S. M., & Helversen, B. v. (2013). Blending and choosing within one mind: Should judgments be based on exemplars, rules, or both? In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Cooperative minds: Social interaction and group dynamics. Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2536-2541). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
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Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The crowd within and the benefits of dialectical bootstrapping: A reply to White and Antonakis. Psychological Science, 24, 117-119. doi:10.1177/0956797612457399
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Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2013). The ecological validity of fluency. In C. Unkelbach & R. Greifeneder (Eds.), The experience of thinking: How the fluency of mental processes influences cognition and behavior (pp. 190-219). New York: Psychology Press.
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Herzog, S. M., & Ostwald, D. (2013). Sometimes Bayesian statistics are better. Nature, 494(7435), 35. doi:10.1038/494035b
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2012

Schooler, L. J., Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2012). How smart forgetting helps heuristic inference. In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, & the ABC Research Group, Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 144-166). New York: Oxford University Press.
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vor 2012

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2011). The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 58–72. PDF

Erev, I., Ert, E., Roth, A. E., Haruvy, E., Herzog, S. M., Hau, R., Hertwig, R., Stewart, T., West, R., Lebiere, C. (2010). A choice prediction competition, for choices from experience and from description. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23, 15–47. doi:10.1037/a0013025 PDF

Hertwig, R., & Herzog, S. M. (2009). Fast and frugal heuristics: Tools of social rationality. Social Cognition, 27, 661–698. doi:10.1521/soco.2009.27.5.661 PDF

Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2009). The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psychological Science, 20, 231–237. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02271.x PDF

Hertwig, R., Herzog, S. M., Schooler, L. J., & Reimer, T. (2008). Fluency heuristic: A model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 34, 1191–1206. doi:10.1037/a0013025
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Herzog, S. M., Hansen, J., & Wänke, M. (2007). Temporal distance and ease of retrieval. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43, 483–488. doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2006.05.008 PDF